EXPECTED EARTHQUAKE LOSSES FOR MEXICO CITY AS AN INPUT FOR THE FINANCIAL ASSESSMENT AND RESILIENCE
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.18867/ris.115.708Keywords:
resiliencia financiera, pérdidas económicas, mitigación, Ciudad de MéxicoAbstract
The estimation of earthquake-induced economic losses is a fundamental tool for financial risk management and the planning of resilient cities. This study evaluates the seismic risk of buildings in Mexico City through a probabilistic analysis of economic losses. For this purpose, a database of more than one million buildings derived from the land tax city database is used, complemented with field inspections and digital surveys that allowed the identification of structural characteristics, number of stories, year of construction, and pathologies that affect seismic performance. Using this information, loss scenarios associated with historical earthquakes, such as the September 19, 2017 event, and scenarios obtained through seismic hazard disaggregation are estimated. The results show that in the hill zone, as observed during recent earthquakes, the estimated losses are low, whereas in the lakebed zone the losses are considerably higher, particularly for mid-rise buildings. Among the analyzed scenarios, the one with the largest number of buildings with high losses corresponds to a seismic event with characteristics similar to the 1985 earthquake. The analyzed scenarios allow the identification of buildings with greater vulnerability, providing useful information to guide mitigation strategies, structural retrofitting, and response planning for future seismic events.
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